What Does it Mean When the Longest Shot is All We Can See?


A lottery is a game in which players pay for a ticket (usually $1) and then select numbers or have machines randomly spit out numbers, in the hopes that they will win. The earliest state-sponsored lotteries in Europe date to the 15th century, with Burgundy and Flanders pioneering the idea as towns sought ways to raise money for defenses and help the poor. In the US, a lottery is a popular form of gambling and one that adds billions to government receipts each year. Some people play for fun, others for the elusive sliver of hope that they will be the winner of the next big jackpot. But what does it mean when the longest shot is all we can see?

Most people who play the lottery do so at least occasionally, and some play regularly. They contribute billions to government receipts each year, buying a ticket or two when they could be saving for retirement or putting away tuition money. And while some lottery winners are truly lucky, most of them are not; the odds of winning a large prize in the lottery are very low.

Despite the gloomy odds, many people continue to buy tickets, spending billions of dollars a week in the process. Those numbers are a testament to the fact that many of us like the idea of winning, even if we know it’s not very likely. But the real question is why states have decided to offer these games in the first place.

One answer is that they were born in the post-World War II era, when states had to expand their range of services without raising taxes too much on the middle class and working classes. But that arrangement was built on shaky foundations and is beginning to crumble now. Lotteries do not raise the same amount of revenue for state governments that they did in the 1950s, and they do not produce the same tax base as other forms of gambling.

Another reason is that lotteries appeal to a specific group of Americans: those who are lower-income, less educated, nonwhite and male. One in eight Americans buy a Powerball ticket a week, and those players account for 70 to 80 percent of all sales. This means that lotteries are a major source of money for the bottom half of the population.

Lotteries also have a clear message to those who play: You can feel good about yourself even if you lose, because you’re contributing to the welfare of your state. This is a message that’s been coded into the way lotteries are promoted, and it obscures how regressive they are. It’s a similar story to what we’re seeing now with sports betting.